Tuna Market Report - Bluefin

Bluefin trade worth some US$ 400 million

Bluefin trade is important - something in the range of US$ 400 million per year, but rather stagnating, with little hope of additional supply. The only way out seems "real" aquaculture that is to close the cycle from spawning to on-growing. Some recent success stories in this respect have been heard, but it is a long way to have the first commercially grown bluefin tuna on the plate.

Less bluefin tuna in coming years

In November 2006, the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) reached an agreement to reduce the bluefin tuna quota in the Mediterranean Sea from 32 000 tonnes in 2006 to 25 500 tonnes in 2010. Environmentalists groups claim that this quota is too high and 15 000 tonnes should have been set as an appropriate level. The below graph shows that in the past Atlantic bluefin tuna catches were in fact around 15 000 tonnes, only in the early 1990s the resource was heavily exploited and catches reached a peak of 56 000 tonnes in 1996, since then catches have been reduced substantially. The below figures are the official figures reported to FAO and the relevant regional tuna bodies. WWF claims that these figures are under-reported, and that bluefin catch in the Eastern Atlantic is around 45 000 tonnes per year.

FAO's General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM), in January 2007 adopted measures which include a 15 year recovery plan for bluefin tuna starting in 2007 and running through 2022. The plan calls for 6-month off seasons for specific types of boats, bans the use of aircraft in spotting tuna, forbids the capture of tuna under 30 kg except in certain specific circumstances, and requires better reporting of tuna catches. It also allows tuna to only be offloaded at designated ports and obliges countries to place observers on fishing boats to monitor their adherence to regulations.

Uncertainty on on-growing activities

In the Mediterranean, a huge quantity of bluefin tuna is taken for on-growing in fish cages. Statistics for culturing are even less accurate than official catch statistics, with countries reporting to FAO only 7 000 tonnes production in 2004. Experts estimated the total Atlantic bluefin aquaculture production at 20 000 tonnes (INFOFISH Tuna Conference 2006), while WWF talks about 30 000 tonnes. (WWF, 2006). When looking at the import statistics of Japan and the EU – and accounting for domestic consumption, it becomes clear that at least 20 000 -22 000 tonnes of bluefin tuna are cultured in the Mediterranean, with a decline in 2005 and 2006.

Responding to fears of an imminent collapse of bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean, major tuna buyers in Japan and Europe are threatening a boycott unless drastic measures are taken to protect the threatened tuna stock, says WWF Mediterranean office. A major Japanese retailer Seiyu has declared it will not buy bluefin tuna from the Mediterranean as long as stocks are in danger of collapse. Seiyu is one of the largest retailers in Japan, with 211 shops and a turnover of some Euro 4.5 billion (US$ 5.6 billion). In addition, restaurants in Europe have already stopped buying Mediterranean bluefin tuna. In the UK, a sushi restaurant chain, Moshi Moshi, has stopped serving bluefin tuna as a direct response to the critical situation of stocks in the Mediterranean and replaced with other tuna species, such as yellowfin, albacore and bigeye

Japanese bluefin market worth US$ 350 million

Total bluefin imports into Japan in 2006 are likely to have reached 23 000 tonnes, which compares to 24 000 tonnes in 2005 and 28 000 tonnes in 2004. The trend is thus declining. The main shift experienced in 2006 is from fresh to frozen bluefin exports, in view of high transport costs. The business is worth yen 42 000 million or US$ 354 million. The total value is very much in line with import values of previous years. This figures shows the importance of the bluefin market in economic terms.

Import figures for the Japanese market show that the bluefin fattening boom is slowing down somehow. Catch restrictions and increasing costs have put a brake to this industry. Fresh Atlantic bluefin imports into Japan peaked at 10 600 tonnes in 2003, and have since declined. In the first eleven months of 2006, total imports of this product were 6 300 tonnes, almost 2 000 tonnes short of the corresponding 2005 figure. Southern bluefin tuna also declined over the years, from 3 000 tonnes in 2003 and 2004 to 1 800 tonnes at present.

It has to considered, however, that December is the main consumption month of bluefin tuna in Japan (year end festivities), and exports to this market are generally strong. Some 1 600 tonnes are generally imported during just this months. The whole fattening industry in the Mediterranean was built in the view of the fact that while the main catching period is during the summer months, the main consumption period is around December. Therefore it is convenient to keep the fish for six months, in order to take advantage of the price differential. Estimates put the total 2006 fresh bluefin imports into the Japanese market at 8 000 tonnes, 20% less than in previous years.

Mexico has emerged in recent years as the main supplier of fresh bluefin to the Japanese market, based on a booming industry. This country started bluefin fattening a bit later than the Mediterranean countries and has thus reached its peak production a bit later. Nevertheless, 2006 saw an important decline of almost 30%. Spain also saw some small declines in its exports, but the industry in this country seems to be more mature. In unit value figures, the value is about stable at US$ 17/kg. The product from Mexico commands a lower price (US$ 14/kg in average) while the Mediterranean countries receive more for their product – on average US$ 21/kg. Australia experienced some drops in production and exports. Total exports from this country in 2006 were 1 700 tonnes, which compares to 2 900 tonnes in 2004. Again catch restrictions and increasing costs have put a brake to production in 2006. The unit value of Australian bluefin is slightly below the one commanded by Mediterranean countries at US$ 20/kg.

Some of the Australian bluefin fattening industry contributes to the frozen Southern bluefin exports to the Japanese market, however, this figure also includes products sold directly from the capture fisheries. 2006 exports of this product are likely to return to the 2004 figure of 8 000 tonnes. The average value of frozen Southern bluefin is slightly below the fresh one at US$ 19/kg. As transport costs are lower for frozen products, this explains why Australian bluefin producers return to frozen exports.

Frozen Atlantic bluefin exports to the Japanese market is still lower than those of Southern bluefin, but also for this product there seems to be a return to frozen rather than fresh shipments in 2006, again in view of increased air shipment costs. Some 5 000 tonnes were shipped in 2006, some 15% more than in 2005, however, still some 1 000 short of the 2004 figure.

Bluefin tuna important for EU exporters

Fresh and frozen bluefin imports into the EU is an internal issue, some 10 500 tonnes of bluefin are imported every year, of which only 500 tonnes from outside the EU. France is the main supplying country of bluefin tuna to the EU, followed by Spain and Italy. Total value of bluefin imports into the EU is Euro 47 million. This species is both consumed in traditional Mediterranean and in Japanese restaurants. The volume is not growing. However, bluefin tuna plays an important role for EU exporters, with revenue generated in the range of Euro 120 million. 80% of this figure is generated through exports to extra EU countries.

Higher prices for bluefin tuna likely

The separation of the Japanese sashimi market into high value wild bluefin, for which prices can easily exceed US$ 100/kg and cultured bluefin, will continue. For both products, however, it is likely that prices will have to go up, as less supply is available.